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英文译文《从整顿教培产业看中国治理与行业大政治》

2021-08-10 20:10


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兔主席写于7月24日的原创文章《从整顿教培产业看中国治理与行业大政治》,已获百万人次阅读。为方便英文读者,兔友将其翻译如下。如有传播需要,请大家自取。(注:未经许可,不得商用)




Chinese governance and supreme political values behind regulation on education industry


Translated by Changrui Xu




This evening, edtech stocks on the Hong Kong stock exchange and the New York stock exchange dropped vastly, leading to more declines of China concept stocks. Overseas investors resorted to a massive sell-off in edtech stocks which, in their eyes, are unreasonable.


Regards to this heated-news, I will discuss motivation, analysis and political logics of central government’s regulation, as well as unfolding certain new characteristics of China model in Xi’s era.


1. Apparently, recent strict measures, issued by the Central Committee, signal an absolutely top-down reform on education and tutoring institutions. In other words, Central government takes charge of education adjustments while Education Department merely implements policies.


2. Therefore, it is necessary to view education as a political issues rather than administrative affair. In China, we’ve heard a long time that everyone need to lift political stance. Education, from top leaders, is associated with what I called ‘supreme political values’ and is considered as the very political issue.


3. To be more specific, economic policies, industry policies and social policies in the past few years were all corresponded to a grand series of ethics, logics and values which guide CPC and Chinese government to cope with challenges. If you still think policies in the past several years as instrumental reactions like companies and some departments, you will miss crucial information to analyze correctly as things have been highly political.


4. Taking real estate industry as example, it is often compared to chamber pots in ancient China. The public depicted a metaphor for dilemma of China economy, hardly striking balance between promoting development and improving structure. Although central government has put forward the guideline that houses are for living in, not for speculation since 2016 and implemented stricter regulation, most of the people including enterprises, local governments and market believe government will stop controlling real estate industry as soon as economy goes down. However, there are little people taking national strategy and political values into consideration. I list three questions from this point of view:


1) In the long-term, what is the best role of real estate industry in national economy?


2) Is housing a very important resource?Will it strengthen social stability? Is it harmful to make substantial headway of common prosperity? Can market play a decisive role in allocating housing resources?


3) What wide-spread effects will be brought about by extremely high price of housing? Changes of asset prices widen the gap between the rich and the poor. With pressure of high housing price, the younger generations are less likely to devote themselves to low-income industries and eroding purchasing power causes low birth rate. Companies prefer to invest real estate industry rather than the real economy, thereby acquire more financial resources and closely link with financial system. Besides, local governments have strong motivation to decrease land supply and raise housing price for fiscal revenues and so forth. From Chinese leader’s perspective, real estate industry, the root of many social problems, is affecting ‘supreme political values’, and ought not to be treated as usual measures for stimulating economy.


Actually, the majority of society haven’t  recognized this kind of trend. When trade frictions escalated at the end of 2018, people believed central government was going to use real estate industry to activate economy in 2019. However, beyond expectation, Chinese government reinforced control immediately. Story came again during period of pandemic in 2020, as soon as housing companies reduced financing costs and land market improved slightly, ‘three thresholds’, rules for concentration of loans of banking institution and strict measures of bidding and auction were released by Chinese government.


Today, the public understand that controlling real estate industry become a fundamental policy and reflection of politics. Chinese government is correcting past practices, despite of reliance on old path, and aiming at avoiding historical precedents of Hong Kong and the USA. It takes five years to shape a clear consensus that there is no chance allowing real estate industry to shake supreme political values.


By the way, you also can regard these concrete, systematic views of real estate industry as a part of Chinese leader’s thought on socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a new era.


5. In the past few years, government was more likely to regulate film and game industries through capital market, which let investors underestimate the intensity and width in new circumstance. Only when you aware of the political stance behind actions, can you figure out the difference between new era and old way.


6. Real estate industry has a giant market, admittedly, but regulation only hit investors within this field, especially for those who acquiring fixed income. Similarly, regulation on game industry and film industry just affect specific enterprises. However, things are changing. From Ant Financial Group case to voice of ‘guard against unregulated expansion of capital’, efforts against business monopolies influence a wide range of companies and capital market. As occupying incredibly big proportion of national economy, Chinese government regulated real estate industry step by step, like boiling the frog, in order to maintain financial security. On the other hand, it seems that government adjusts neo-economy industries rapidly and sharply. Confronting mountainous policies, because overseas investors(a great number of companies developed with overseas capital and listed on New York stock exchange) stay far from Chinese new era, new model, new condition, they may find it quite difficult to digest information and uncertain to invest on these industries. In capital’s view, no certainty, no investment. Based on this, the first method they can come up with is defunding.


7. Come back to tutoring industry. In my opinion, the same thing of regulation on tutoring and real estate industry is underlying political logics. Again, they are associated with supreme political values. How to manage education system, what should education actually achieve in China? Chinese leader has his own answer from top-level design.


1) Can we consider education as important social resources which help maintain social stability and promote common prosperity? More importantly, can it create more equality of opportunities, that is to say, whether the capacity to obtain education resources is determined by household income or not? It is true to say everyone is able to change their life through fair college entrance examination, but external intervention to a large extent help improve learning ability. The rich people intend to buy off-school courses and apartment in top school district while the poor people cannot afford that. Thus, expanding opportunities equality plays a crucial role in enhancing social mobility  and vitality.


2) What activities are more suitable for adolescents(from 3 years old to primary school)? Which kind of education we want our descendants to receive, all-rounded education(such as eyesight protection, building a strong body and boosting hobbies) or endless involution education(preparing for ‘gaokao’ since 3 years old)? Can they face and deal with societal challenges in the long-term?


3) What should our children learn from in current education system? Does it incorporate core values and ideology of our own country or not? Should we put education under national supervision system? Should it fit in with China model? They might not be something in the past few years while they definitely are momentous questions in complicated and volatile geopolitics situation nowadays. My analysis is that Chinese leader particularly cares about what education do social elite’s(entrepreneurs, executives, professionals, overseas talents) children receive? Western education or Chinese education? Provided that their offspring receiving western education(international education), how to ensure their senses of belongings, recognition, understanding and loyalty effectively?


4) In the light of significance of education, what’s the best way to allocate resources and what kind of industry policies work better? What about public schools? Should they shoulder more responsibilities of providing balanced, free and quality education? Could we establish a platform which can share education resources through Internet? Is it possible, by procurement and reallocation, for top teachers in high school affiliated renmin university and NO.2 experimental primary school pay more attention to online courses for students in other schools and training for other teachers? In new era, development of technology and system of pooling national resources enable China to achieve theses managements which can hardly be fulfilled in any other countries. Open your mind, what a bright future.


5) The relationship between education and finance. We need to ask ourselves that to what extend can capital and financial institutions influence education? If capital is allowed to interfere education, it will make education develop for profiteering and stuck into vicious competition, violating legitimate rights of customers ultimately. Henceforth, central government plans to disconnect education and capital so as to prevent disorderly expansion of tutoring industry. What’s more, the majority of tutoring institutions are overseas-listed companies. The key thing here is, apart from data security, whole chain of offshore capital wandering outside Chinese government, then reshaping education industry will become an empty word. Consequently, the guideline said tutoring institution cannot raise money from overseas capital and adding investment by foreign listed companies is completely prohibited.


6) The relationship between education and real estate industry. On April 31th, 2021, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee emphasized that housing is for living, not for speculation, pledging to rein in the speculation on housing prices in school districts which has never been mentioned by. Frankly speaking, apartments in school districts are heated by education and real estate industry simultaneously. Why do apartments in central district of popular cities always have a whopping price? Education resources. In China, education resources belongs to local governments and are distributed based on housing property and hukou, which cannot be changed at one stroke. It is inevitable that chasing superior education resources motivate people to chase housing property in central district, then atmosphere of involution act as a catfish to increase housing price. Apparently, prescription of central government is cutting down the link between education and real estate industry. Pandemic, on the one hand, enabled online tutoring to develop vastly, on the other hand, provided an opportunity for Chinese leader to resolve the problem. Driven by government, online tutoring institution can have adequate resources and capacity to empower whole society, share top education and achieve equality to a large extend. With development of technology and system of pooling national resources, opportunity of disconnecting education and localization/real estate industry emerges.


7) Education and low birth rate. Steady increase of population is a core issue of national strategy, but tremendous education cost is becoming an obstacle for having multiple babies. Firstly, young people dislike getting married as they prefer individualism life style, leaving alone having baby. Secondly, parents are not willing to have more kids, though they can enjoy low marginal costs and be encouraged to give birth theoretically. Because swallowing education involution greatly increases opportunity costs for parents, birth willingness being largely declined, central government certainly intend to stimulate birth willingness of whole society through regulation on tutoring industry.


8) Education industry and other industries. Unregulated expansion of education industry is bound to reduce household purchasing power, which make education industry become a giant in national economy reversely. The giant consist of gaokao industry and ‘un-gaokao’ industry(international education). The first one has damaged all-rounded development of children since it started at 3 years old, while the latter bring into ideology risks. In conclusion, both these two tracks not only do harm to mental health of kids but also rob household alternative budgets and resources of other industries.


   

8. Education, embedded in cultural gene, is paid incredibly much attention to in Chinese family. Chinese people contest for education resources at all costs, so they are forced into involution and squeeze out irrelevant industries. What’s worse, real estate industry and capital could accelerate the pace of education industrialization as well as disorderly growth. If housing, capital and population are considered as core issues of central government, education is the core issue of core issue not only because education itself is significant but also it serves as the link to three sectors above. Once education interacts with them, national strategy and general situation will be  risky, proving that it is wise to understand education from top political stance.


9. What’s the ultimate plan to select talents in China? Gaokao. I said before, gaokao is deemed the fairest system for all Chinese students which is an irreplaceable part of politics. However, due to gaokao’s transparency and standardized public mechanism, people can find out the clue to prepare in advance such as buying housing in school district, spending time on off-school classes. It seems that involution is unavoidable. Is there any solution can reshape tutoring industry while protecting gaokao system? There are two methods. Government should implement rigorous regulation on tutoring industry so as to clear out all your choices after school, then most of the people will give up attending extra courses. The second method is providing free, shared quality education to whole society through Internet technology and system of pooling resources. But be realistic, tutoring co-exists with the need of extra training and it is impossible to wipe tutoring out of the earth. I suppose that plenty of off-school classes are going to transform into covert actions in the future. If education loses connection with real estate industry and finance, failing to cause systematic risks and massive involution, our measures can sufficiently be viewed as effective and successful for most families. I remembered that little parents took much time to increase kids’ mark in 1980s, and rarely purchase off-school classes. In a word, there might be few tutoring institutions, but they were not forming an overwhelming industry. At that time, preparation for gaokao started at senior high school rather than kindergarten. I believe that a large number of families will be fully satisfied with free, fair quality education appearing in public primary school and public junior high school.


10. Education is politics of politics. You can notice that there are a series of top-level thoughts, ideas and logics behind regulation on education and other industries/companies. Enterprises and players in market won’t understand new China until they understand underlying logics.


11. Supported by unregulated expansion of capital, education involution absolutely can make our society stifling, dreary and lifeless, which distorts students’ physical and mental health. Influenced by Confucianism, Eastern Asia society especially Japan suffer from severe involution as well. In the long-term, young people will become misanthrope and even commit suicide.


12. Let’s analyze certain characteristics of China in new era:


1) Benefiting from system of coordination across whole country and socialism gene, Chinese government has a strong capacity to control capital. Compared with dichotomy between civil society and authority in western countries, our political topic is about interest groups versus the public goods. This is difference.


2) Guided by traditional culture and contemporary socialism system, China aims at maximizing interest of most of the people and achieving opportunity equality as well as common prosperity. We also can say, it is because Marxism conforms to Chinese tradition culture that we choose it and keep adapting Marxism to the Chinese context.


3) In Chinese culture, country is considered as an organic and harmonious society in which people perform their own occupations and coordinate with each other. Now we abandon ‘class conflict and division’ and encourage Chinese capital, companies to struggle for ‘Two Centenary Goal, great project, great cause, great dream, happiness for the Chinese people, rejuvenation for the Chinese nation’. Sectors should have political stance and take nation, society ,people into consideration of development. Chinese state ask you to leave this industry, then leave. What can they do? Embrace the industry supported by nation and suited with political goal.


4) Chinese people has always valued rule of virtue that is oriented by a more abstract ethic and logic—high morals. The party, government, politicians, laws, policies all need to conform to high morals. Of course high morals are not invariable, they are contemporary consensus of whole society. Rooted in our civilization, cultural traditions and consensus, high morals represent will of the people, aspiration of the people. Leaders and governments are responsible to understand the consensus and choose approaches and paths of governance accordingly. I mean, system of high morals transcend the power of law while law merely serves as a tool to implement.


13. The China model mentioned before puzzles westerners because they can unfold social reality only by rules and institutions. In western countries, everything which is not forbidden is allowed thereby government is prohibited from adjusting existing rules. Subjective and ‘arbitrary’ government, in their minds, is necessarily an evil. As Westerners living in another civilization and tradition, rarely can they understand Chinese political ethics, the pursuit of high morals, utilitarianism view of law. Evidently, Chinese government plans social development and draw up guidelines from historical angle which clearly reflect its values, ideas, logics. But all foreign investors can see is uncertainty. They are not able to understand, so they quit.


14. Government’s regulations on Internet industry and education industry exert a seemingly negative effect on overseas investors—defunding, at least temporarily. Overseas listed companies and companies that hope to get foreign financing may experience a tough time in the short-term. In spite of friction and negative externality, Chinese government will keep implementing strategy and grand design firmly.


15. In fact, Chinese investment does have certainty. The only thing you need to do is understanding governance ideas and top-level logics of central government. Eric Li gave a wonderful lecture called ‘Read qiushi, make investment decisions’, sharing the same idea as mine. This is the link.

https://www.guancha.cn/LiShiMo/2020_11_14_571405_s.shtml


Many years ago, a watchword was prevalent among the youth, ‘go to rural areas, go to boarder regions, go to the place that my country wants’. If you ask me how to invest and run companies currently in China, I would say, go to industries that are consistent with supreme political values, national strategies and new development paradigm.

                                                                                      




来源: mp.weixin.qq.com/s/?id=aa9d3e863ba561c70b8e66906d38d27d&source_url=https%3A%2F%2Fmp.weixin.qq.com%2Fs%2FE43H_Pce0zSttldjkAKTvg

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